THE CHINA THREAT
The 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan has the attention of many U.S. adversaries: the People's Republic of China being one of them. The following sections will fully analyze the national security threat: China's rise, threat level, war projection, and what everything means for the U.S. after the War in Afghanistan.
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS: CHINA'S RISE TO A WORLD POWER
Map of China
Photo is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
Chinese President Xi Jinping (front). People's Republic of China founder and Chairman Mao Zedong (back).
The People's Republic of China is one of the main national security threats to the United States (U.S.). For years, U.S. and China tensions escalated from trade to potential warfare. Each presidential administration crafted or adopted their own policies on China. From the late 20th century to the present 21st Century, China's influence and international status bolstered.
China has thousands of years' worth of emperors and dynasties. The last Chinese dynasty ended in 1912. A year prior, the Chinese Nationalist Revolution changed the trajectory of China's future. Through the 1920s, China's political climate struggled with nationalism and the influence of communism.
In 1937, Japan invaded China (Second Sino-Japanese War). Atrocities such as the Rape of Nanking and Unit 731 were common during Japan's occupation in China. To combat Imperial Japan's Asian expansion, the U.S. issued an oil embargo. America entered World War II after Pearl Harbor in December 1941. During World War II, the U.S. fought Japan in the Pacific theatre. China was an ally of the United States. In September 1945, Japan surrendered, and many of its former territories were turned to U.S. jurisdiction.
After World War II, China returned to its continued struggle between nationalism and communism (Chinese Civil War). On October 1, 1949, the People's Republic of China was established. China officially became a communist country led by Mao Zedong.
Under Mao Zedong, China underwent major economic and political developments. Even though China was a communist country, its relationship with the Soviet Union drastically deteriorated (even at the height of the Cold War).
During the Korean War, China dispatched its Red Army battalions to fight in North Korea against U.S. forces. From 1958-1961, Mao Zedong launched China's Great Leap Forward. In an attempt to elicit a collectivist agricultural economic policy on a mass scale, it ended up being a disaster. Over 30 million died as a result. In 1966, Mao then launched the Cultural Revolution. The goal was to politically "revamp" China. It too was a failure and its effects lasted for generations. In 1976, Mao Zedong died, and the Cultural Revolution collapsed.
Internationally, China's influence at the time was not comparable to its present standing. In 1972, the U.S. reopened a diplomatic relationship with China. After the death of Mao Zedong, China began to change economically. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping blueprinted key policies to "westernize" China's economy. Soon, China's GDP grew, manufacturing sector increased, and relations with the United States tightened. American policies such as Favored Nation Status and entry into the World Trade Organization bolstered the U.S.-China trade deficit. As a result, millions of U.S. jobs have been shipped overseas.
China also utilizes illegal methods such as currency manipulation that help bolster the trade deficit with the United States. In 2018, the U.S. implemented tariffs against China to lower the trade deficit. By December 2019, the tariffs decreased the U.S. trade deficit. The U.S. and China negotiated a new trade deal in January 2020. By spring 2020, the Coronavirus outbreak shut down countries worldwide. China was the hotspot of origin. Beijing has come under scrutiny for covering up the origins of the virus and making false statements on its spread.
Currently, China is the second most powerful economy on the planet with a 17.73 trillion GDP (2021). Their long-term economic policies such as Made in China 2025 seek to bolster it as the top world economy. In comparison, the United States of America is the top world economy with a 23 trillion GDP (2021). As a world power, China has significant status in the United Nations, international trade, and international security.
CHINA'S NATIONAL SECURITY OUTLOOK: HISTORICAL ANALYSIS
The People's Republic of China is one of the largest national security threats to the United States of America. After the 2021 Withdrawal from Afghanistan, there is concern of an ultimate showdown between the U.S. and China. To fully understand how China became a challenging military power to the U.S. the following section will offer the history of China's militarization, and geopolitical aims.
Map of Taiwan
The People's Republic of China's growing international influence and military capabilities continue to alert U.S. policy makers. The three main Chinese foreign policy objectives are Taiwan, South China Sea, and Hong Kong. Understanding China's military history and foreign policy goals are crucial to forming future U.S. foreign policy.
When the People's Republic of China was formed in 1949, the Chinese nationalists fled to Taiwan. The United States did not formally recognize the People's Republic of China; instead attempted a position of neutrality, Taiwan's government was the Republic of China. The difference between the two is mainland China was under Mao Zedong's communist rule, and Taiwan was under democratic nationalistic rule. For the U.S., Taiwan was strategic location. Once the Korean War commenced in 1950, the U.S. began deploying troops to Taiwan. The U.S. Seventh Fleet was also deployed to maintain Taiwan's security from China.
Throughout the 1950s, tensions between China and Taiwan escalated- raising concern of potential war. The First Taiwan Strait Crisis occurred in 1954. That same year, the U.S. and Taiwan signed the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty: protection against Chinese invasion. Under the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, China launched artillery attacks against two islands near Taiwan. The U.S. threatened nuclear retaliation against China if conflict were to increase. The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis occurred in 1995.
In October 1962, China fought India over border disputes in the Sino-Indian War. Even though China defeated India, Beijing announced a ceasefire. Note that the war took place during the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 1964, China officially became nuclear powered after a successful hydrogen bomb test. By 1966, China began the Cultural Revolution. Politically, it did affect the role of the People's Liberation Army.
After Mao Zedong's death and end of the Cultural Revolution, Deng Xiaoping introduced new reforms for China. In 1978, he implemented the Four Modernizations. For the People's Liberation Army (PLA), it entailed upgraded training and weaponry. In 1979, the U.S. and China began diplomatic relations. The U.S. also formally recognized the People's Republic of China (One China Policy). From the 1980s, the PLA reduced in size. Domestically, the PLA was utilized under Martial Law during the 1989 massacre in Tiananmen Square.
China's expansive threat extends to the South China Sea. Currently, Beijing states 90% Chinese control. Disputed origins trace to 1947 when China proclaimed the 9-dash line: jurisdiction of control. They then acquired supremacy of the Parcel Islands in 1974. By 1988, China extended its foothold in the Spratley Islands.
Under the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995, the PLA launched live drills near Taiwan. This included the launching of missiles off Taiwan's waters. The U.S. responded with a deterrence strategy.
In 1997, the British returned Hong Kong to China's control. China has governing over Hong Kong until 2047 (One China Two Systems). Future political control is a major goal for China. In 2019, Hong Kong proposed legislation allowing extradition of prisoners to China. It resulted in major backlash and massive protests throughout Hong Kong. In June 2020, China passed a national security law over Hong Kong.
The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) continued to modernize and develop. In 2012, China built its first aircraft carrier. Currently, China has three aircraft carriers. It is also the world's largest navy. Increased naval power and army modernization is evident in the South China Sea. This is done through construction and fortification of the Parcel and Spratley Islands.
The People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union had a tense relationship (both nearly went to war). However, China today has warmer relations with Russia. Notable examples are the 2018 and 2022 Vostok Military Drills, the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine: China advised Russia on invasion and increased the Yuan value in Moscow.
BEIJING'S KEY FOREIGN POLICY OBJECTIVES:
The People's Republic of China made clear its intentions to acquire their main foreign policy goals. Below will present the strategic interests and possible methods that China could utilize.
TAIWAN
STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE: Top world manufacturer of computer chips, reunification strengthens Chinese sovereignty.
ACQUISITION METHOD(S): Military Invasion.
HONG KONG
STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE: Strengthen international Chinese trade and investments, expand political control.
ACQUISITION METHOD(S): Direct political influence. military intervention.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE: Major international transit route for oil, multi trillion-dollar international trade route.
ACQUISITION METHOD: Artificial Island construction. weaponry deployment, naval intervention.
CHINA FUTURE WAR PROJECTION
According to the 2021 U.S. Department of Defense Report on China, Beijing plans to accomplish all foreign policy objectives by 2049. This is important for the United States, because it risks a deadline for a potential U.S.-China War.
Analyzed above, U.S. policy favors the defense of Taiwan. It is reaffirmed through continuous U.S. weapons shipments. The U.S. also activates deterrence measures such as destroyer and aircraft carrier deployments. China reiterates its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.
Recently, China increased military aircraft flyovers in Taiwanese airspace. Beijing threatened an invasion of Taiwan numerous times.
China continues improving its weapons capabilities. In October 2021, the Chinese hypersonic missile was successfully tested. Reports indicate that China may have had the missile in late 2019. The U.S. did not reach a successful hypersonic test until Spring 2022. By Summer 2022, China unveiled a weapons development project to outpace advanced U.S. weapons.
One more expansive theatre of warfare is space. China managed to reach competitive status with the U.S. after 2007. In 2019, they landed on the dark side of the moon. China's Tiangong Space Station is on a path to replace U.S. dominance in space. China also weaponized satellites that threaten unprotected U.S. satellites. As 2049 approaches, questions loom on U.S. preparation levels and military readiness for a possible war with China.
WHAT AFGHANISTAN MEANS FOR CHINA
Map of China (orange) and Afghanistan (green).
Taliban Mullah Baradar and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi standing side by side during a meeting on July 28, 2021.
(Li Ran/Xinhua via AP)
After the 2021 U.S. Withdrawal, Beijing could seize an opportunity in Afghanistan for foreign policy and the economy.
Regional Strategy: Path to Afghanistan
In 2013, China launched the Belt and Road Initiative. Under the program, Beijing would invest in countries deemed vital to its strategic interests. In return, China then acquires leases and establishes a presence there. Note, this is also grounds for international expansion and presence of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
One method China uses under the Belt and Road Initiative is debt-trap diplomacy. Under that method, China's loans would be nearly impossible to be repaid in a short time frame. Therefore, China uses that advantage to extend their lease. That nation (while in long term debt to China) can lose vital economic resources. For example, Laos' electricity is under Chinese control due to debt trap.
The PLA's international presence pales in comparison with the U.S. military. The U.S. has over 700 bases worldwide. In 2017, China built its first overseas base in Djibouti. The location is in close proximity with a U.S. base. China is planning the continued construction of overseas bases
Pakistan as a Chinese Gateway to Afghanistan
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (left), Afghanistan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani (middle), and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Quereshi sign an agreement on curbing terrorism. The three ministers met in Kabul, Afghanistan in December 2018.
(Reuters)
Regionally, Pakistan is one of Afghanistan's largest benefactors. During the War in Afghanistan, the United States cooperated with Pakistan to kill or capture Taliban and al-Qaeda. Though Pakistan has not fully honored its obligations in ending state support of terrorism, it is key for Beijing.
China and Pakistan have a decades long relationship. Both began a diplomatic relationship in 1951. They also have a deepening military alliance (decades in the making). This was notable during the development of Pakistani nuclear weapons by A.Q. Khan. In 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was launched. As a component of the Belt and Road Initiative, China invested heavily into Pakistani infrastructure. As a result, China gained more influence over Islamabad. Projects such as railways, energy, and airports are major elements of CPEC. By gaining direct influence in Pakistan, China can pivot directly into Afghanistan. In July 2023, China and Pakistan signed the second phase of CPEC.
China and Afghanistan: Possible Opportunities and Projections
Taliban Mullah Baradar and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi greet one another during a high-profile meeting in China on July 28, 2021.
(Li Ran/Xinhua via AP)
Prior to the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, China held meetings with Taliban officials. Economically, China displayed intentions to eventually acquire Afghan natural resources. Afghanistan is rich in lithium reserves (worth at least $1 trillion). Increased cooperation with the Taliban benefit China to acquire those materials. This can lead to a potential recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
Historically, Afghanistan's mineral reserves were tapped by multiple nations. Both the U.S. and Soviet Union launched their own excavation projects through the 1950s and 1960s. Aside minerals, Afghanistan was also harboring natural gas. The Soviet Union built pipelines to extract gas from Afghanistan. Continued Soviet excavation and mapping were published in 1977.
Map of Afghanistan listing locations and type of natural resources.
(Swire, Sophia, Flickr, 2010.)
Soviet mining and projects in Afghanistan continued after the 1979 invasion. Decades later, the U.S. released a full geological map of Afghanistan's minerals in 2012. Reports in 2010 confirmed the $1 trillion value. China prepared projects in Afghanistan prior to the 2021 U.S. withdrawal. In 2007, China struck a multi-billion dollar deal to build Anyek mines in Afghanistan. Initially targeting copper, mining projects were soon launched for natural gas. China's strategy for acquiring those mining leases can be traced to Belt and Road (BRI) tactics (note, some of these projects were before the BRI's official 2013 establishment).
Lithium, prominent in batteries, is beneficial for China economically. Internationally, China is one of the top lithium exporters. Its competitive status outpaces the United States. Using Afghanistan for lithium mining could strengthen China's hold on international exports: strengthening ties between both countries.
Afghanistan and China's Plan for Taiwan
Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Taiwanese President Tsai Lng-Wen.
(VOA)
The 2021 U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan left negative ramifications for the United States internationally. Many argue it made the U.S. appear weaker on the world stage. China took advantage of that to craft a public-relations antic. Chinese propaganda (issued to Taiwanese citizens) accused the United States of abandoning its allies. Since the U.S. is the most powerful ally of Taiwan, Beijing wanted the people of Taiwan to adjust their thinking to view China as a more viable ally.
Mentioned above, Taiwan owns the computer chip manufacturing sector. China wants to invade Taiwan under claims of sovereignty. Taking advantage of Afghanistan, many question how it could affect Chinese strategy. In 2022, China increased its threats against Taiwan. In August, Beijing launched live military drills in retaliation for U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan. China even directly threatened the life of Speaker Pelosi. Beijing's long term foreign policy goals (as indicated in the 2021 Department of Defense Report) require taking Taiwan. The level of which Afghanistan applies can have an effect on future U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Map of Xinjiang Province, China. Xinjiang borders Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India.
(Wikimedia)
Uyghur Detainees in a Chinese Labor Camp located in Xinjiang Province.
(BBC/Human Rights Watch)
China's Active Genocide Against the Uyghur Population
Could the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan result in an increased Uyghur Genocide?
The People's Republic of China has a decades long history of Uyghur persecution. Beijing justifies its actions to combat terrorism. Uyghurs are a Muslim minority in China's Xinjiang Province. In 2014, Beijing began a hardline campaign to constrain Uyghurs. Re-education camps were constructed throughout Xinjiang. By 2017, the number of camps built drastically increased. It is estimated over one million Uyghurs are detained in camps across Xinjiang.
Detainees are subjected to barbarous treatment and slave labor. China targets Uyghur culture and seeks to forcibly assimilate them into Chinese culture. Evidence such as the Xinjiang Police Files (leaked images and documents) and other reports confirm persecution. China's actions continue to be condemned internationally. The United States officially designated Uyghur persecution as genocide. The U.S. also banned imports such as cotton from Xinjiang- citing slave labor.
Taliban militants patrol the streets of Kabul, Afghanistan in an improvised Afghan police truck (August 16, 2021).
(Zakeria Hashimi /AFP via Getty Images)
A small portion of Xinjiang Province borders Afghanistan. China considers Afghanistan a security issue. The Uyghur East Turkistan Islamic Movement is considered a terror threat in China's Xinjiang Province. China uses the crackdown on Islamic terrorism as pretext for their genocide campaign against Uyghurs. This has also led to China's presence in Tajikistan and further ties to the Taliban.
There is concern that the genocide could worsen. The Taliban could deport Uyghurs to China. Several reports indicate the Taliban has issued Uyghur deportations within Afghanistan. However, there is no confirmation that they have been sent to China.
Above, China's presence in Tajikistan has been noted. Drone footage from 2019 revealed the transit of Uyghur detainees in Xinjiang. If there was an increased Uyghur deportation to China, questions arise if Tajikistan could contain secret detention sites. Another question is if Tajikistan could serve as transit to Chinese camps in Xinjiang.
PREDICTNG BEIJING'S NEXT MOVES
Following the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, China's targets and long-term goals remain active. Could this lead to a feared U.S.-China War? China's history and development as a major U.S. adversary have been analyzed. If Beijing uses Afghanistan to its advantage, what lessons could be provided to strengthen U.S. policy against China's aggression and security threats?
