AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
INDIA
Mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan during the Soviet-Afghan War.
(Erwin Lux, Flickr)
PAKISTAN:
A BRIEF ANALYSIS
For decades, the United States and Pakistani relations have been unsteadied. Since the War in Afghanistan, Pakistan has been a key nation in the U.S. effort to defeat terrorism. This section will analyze Pakistan's diplomatic history and policies with the United States during the War on Terror.
Founded in 1947, Pakistan is a major adversary of India and sponsor of terrorism. For the United States (U.S.), conducting policy with Pakistan has been complicated since its founding. It is also a major benefactor of terrorism in the Afghanistan War (2001-2021) against U.S. forces. Two major periods for the United States and Pakistan occurred during the 1980s and after 9/11.
In order to understand Pakistan, one must learn its history. This analysis will concentrate on the two main periods mentioned above. In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. Fearing the spread of communism, the United States funneled arms and supplies to the Mujahideen (anti-Soviet freedom fighters). Pakistan was a major transit point for fighters and weapons. During the 1980s, Pakistan became more Islamized under General Zia al-Haq. U.S. and Pakistani relations were at a major high. Most of the cooperation occurred until the Soviets retreated from Afghanistan in 1989. Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, however deteriorated through the 1990s.
After the attacks of September 11, 2001, the U.S. was poised to invade Afghanistan. Pakistan (under Pervez Musharraf) pledged to cooperate with the United States. U.S. demands entailed Pakistan stop the support of terrorism (to include denying the Taliban safe haven). Pakistan's ISI (Interservice Intelligence) helped the United States hunt down and conduct raids to kill or capture terrorists. One notable incident was a 2003 ISI raid that captured Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (9/11 mastermind).
From 2001, the United States provided billions of dollars annually to Pakistan. Despite ISI's promise to cooperate with the United States, that was not entirely the case. Members of ISI supported al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Pakistan embezzled U.S. funding for anti-terrorism. Members of Pakistan's government and political parties supported jihad (this is rooted in its foundation and history). The United States conducted drone strikes in Pakistan's FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas). Note that the FATA is a breeding ground for terrorist groups. The U.S. understood Pakistan as an unreliable ally; this was evident during the raid on Osama bin Laden. Pakistan was not informed or given any intelligence prior to the raid. Understanding Pakistan's foundation, history, and actions are central for future relations and defeating terrorism in Afghanistan.
PAKISTAN'S DIPLOMATIC HISTORY AFTER SEPTEMBER 11
Each U.S. Presidential Administration had evolving policies and intricate diplomatic relations with Pakistan. This section will analyze policies from Pakistani leaders toward the United States. Analysis will include Pakistani leaders' attitude and approach to terrorism.
PERVEZ MUSHARRAF (2001-2008)
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf during a 2002 Press Conference.
(Helen C. Stikkel, Department of Defense, 2002)
The previous section highlighted the complexities between the United States and Pakistan. After 9/11, it was imperative for the United States to have Pakistan's support to defeat the Taliban, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. In October 2001, U.S. forces were given access to Pakistan's airbases. After agreeing to cooperate with the U.S., Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf also had to extend that promise to India. In December 2001, Pakistani Islamic militants attacked India's Parliament. In January 2002, Musharraf outlawed terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Musharraf's commitment to antiterrorism was controversial. In November 2001, he brokered a deal with the U.S. to allow Pakistani evacuation flights from Kunduz, Afghanistan. Under the pretext of evacuating Pakistani military allies of the Taliban, it soon divulged to include Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters.
Pakistani troops were soon ordered to the FATA (specifically Waziristan) in 2002. Note that U.S. troops were not authorized to operate within Pakistan's tribal regions. Through 2002, the U.S. and Pakistani cooperation efforts increased. This extended to U.S. intelligence agencies directly working with Pakistanis to hunt down terror suspects. The U.S. did not have "free reign" in Pakistan. After the commencement of Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001, al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters fled to Pakistan for refuge. The FATA was not the sole location for terrorists; they operated throughout Pakistan. In March and September 2002, al-Qaeda terror suspects Abu Zubaydah and Ramzi bin al-Sheibh were arrested and extradited to U.S. custody.
Musharraf's anti-terror policies with the U.S. resulted in favorable actions toward Pakistan. Sanctions were lifted against its nuclear program, arms and aid were increased. Multiple assassination attempts were made against Musharraf as a result.
In 2004, the U.S. began utilizing drone strikes against Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters. That same year, Pakistan began a major offensive in the FATA against terrorist militants. In December 2004, Musharraf recommitted his pledge to fight against terrorism during a White House visit.
Pervez Musharraf soon faced major internal political scandals in Pakistan from 2007. After a hotly contested election, the Pakistani Supreme Court ruled against him. He soon suspended the Pakistani Constitution and later resigned in 2008. In December 2019, Pervez Musharraf was sentenced to death by a Pakistani court. Note that Musharraf was not in the country at the time of the verdict.Pervez Musharraf died on February 5, 2023 in a Dubai hospital.
ASIF ALI ZARDARI (2008-2013)
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari during a 2012 Conference.
(Reuters, 2012)
Taking office in September 2008, he was the husband of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto (assassinated in 2007). Asif Zardari's first weeks in the presidency was marked with a terrorist attack that included Americans among the dead. On September 20, 2008, a truck bomb exploded at the Marriot hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan. Zardari expressed remorse for the attack and pledged continued efforts against terrorism.
In 2009, the U.S. launched a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Under the strategy, the U.S. would increase direct intelligence cooperation with Pakistan, fund/train Afghanistan's military, and invest in Afghan and Pakistani economics. The strategy also called for a $1.5 billion aid package to Pakistan. Despite the U.S. commitment toward defeating the Taliban and al-Qaeda, President Zardari was not optimistic. He instead stated the Taliban would win the war.
In 2010, U.S. antiterrorism efforts increased to eliminate al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The U.S, ordered 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. U.S. drone strikes against Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters were skyrocketed. Controversy over Zardari's seriousness was hindered over alleged secret meetings with the Taliban to pledge support. He also opposed increased Pakistani military operations in the FATA.
By 2011, U.S. troop deployments to Afghanistan peaked. In May, the U.S. launched Operation Neptune Spear: raid on Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden's compound was in close proximity to Pakistan's military academy. During the operation, Pakistan was not previously notified. After bin Laden was killed, Zardari praised the role of Pakistan. He asserted that Pakistan's role has been critical in helping the U.S. effort against al-Qaeda. Politically, Zardari faced major backlash after the raid. Calls reigned across Pakistan for his resignation.
In 2012, Zardari's position with the U.S. publicly pivoted. In response for a deadly airstrike in late 2011, Pakistan blocked supply lines for NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). Through 2012, Asif Zardari publicly opposed U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan's FATA regions. He also met with the Iranian and Afghan leaders during a summit for peace. Zardari's presidency ended in September 2013. The last major policy under his term was the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It did not take effect until 2015.
NAWAZ SHARIF (2013-2017)
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during a meeting.
(CC BY-SA)
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took office in June 2013. He was not in the presidency; thus, did not succeed Asif Ali Zardari. In September 2013, Nawaz Sharif attempted to make peace with the Taliban. Just five years earlier, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan was formed within the FATA region. The Taliban demanded the Sharif government provide a ceasefire and remove all Pakistani troops from the FATA. The effort was short-lived; Taliban attacks continued against the Pakistani military.
By October 2013, Nawaz Sharif wanted a new approach between U.S. and Pakistani relations. Like Zardari, Sharif opposed U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan's FATA. Sharif's proposal was more U.S. non-military intervention into Pakistan. Nearly $3 billion in aid from the U.S. was on the table as both nations sought a new path forward. Nawaz Sharif unsuccessfully attempted to get the U.S. to negotiate on behalf of Pakistan for Kashmir.
As 2014 approached, the United States was attempting to end the War in Afghanistan. Full U.S troop withdrawal was to end within two years of ending the war. Since the 2011 peak in deployments, the U.S. began a slow but gradual reduction of deployments.
In June 2014, Pakistan launched a military offensive in the FATA. The objective was to root out the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Haqqani Network, and other militants. For years, the U.S. relentlessly pressured Pakistan to act within the FATA. Despite continuous terror threats traced to militants in the FATA, Pakistan's inaction hindered relations with the U.S.
On December 16, 2014, Tehreek-e-Taliban attacked a government school in Peshawar, Pakistan. More than 100 students were murdered. By December 24, Nawaz Sharif launched the National Action Plan. In retaliation for the Peshawar attack, Pakistan would crack down on terrorism. Policies under the plan included the death penalty, denial of financing and safe haven for terrorism. Four days later on December 28, 2014, the U.S. officially closed the combat phase of the War in Afghanistan. On January 1, 2015, the War in Afghanistan was codenamed Operation Freedom's Sentinel.
Tensions between Pakistan and the United States briefly flared but remained stable in 2015. The U.S. had concerns over Pakistan's continuous nuclear programs. However, Sharif continued to negotiate with the Taliban. Just as he had when he first took office, diplomacy (according to him) was the way out. The U.S. and Pakistani cooperation remained strong through 2015. Pakistan however was beginning to receive Chinese investments. All due to the official implementation of CPEC (signed between both nations one year earlier).
In August 2016, concern rose again between the U.S. and Pakistan. $300 million in U.S. aid to Pakistan was suspended due to unsatisfactory progress fighting against the Haqqani Network. In December, the U.S. proposed a $900 million aid package to Pakistan. If Pakistan were to receive the funds, they were required to extend antiterrorism operations against the Haqqani Network. Nawaz Sharif resigned in 2017 after being disqualified by the Pakistani Supreme Court.
IMRAN KHAN (2018-2022)
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's Official Picture in 2018.
(CC BY)
Imran Khan (former cricket player) took office in August 2018. Months before his term, the U.S. threatened another suspension of aid to Pakistan. Concerns loomed again over Pakistani refusal or inadequate actions to crack down on terrorism. Khan rebutted and stated Pakistan was a key partner with the U.S. to defeat terrorism. Tensions again boiled in November between the U.S. and Pakistan over terrorism. This time over Pakistan's record of shielding terrorists while receiving U.S. aid. At the end of 2018, Khan continued meeting with China to receive. In a November 2018 meeting, China was offered a $6 billion aid package to Pakistan.
In 2019, India and Pakistan faced a near war over border clashes. Both media outlets from India and Pakistan detailed the justifications for military action: citing airspace violation and attacks. The U.S. pleaded a ceasefire between both nations. Note that both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons.
Later in 2019, relations between the U.S. and Pakistan warmed. In July 2019, Imran Khan visited the White House. Dialogue seemed to offer a positive path forward for the U.S. and Pakistan. There was also optimism for a victory in Afghanistan. Another meeting between the U.S. and Pakistani leaders offered even more positivity. The U.S. offered a peaceful negotiation strategy for both Pakistan and India.
U.S. strategy in Afghanistan was continuously holding peace talks with the Taliban. Any attack against U.S. forces resulted in cancellation of future meetings. In February 2020, the U.S. and Taliban signed the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan. In August 2021 (three months after the deal's agreed upon date), U.S. forces fully withdrew from Afghanistan.
Imran Khan praised the U.S. withdrawal and compared it to slavery. He advocated support for Afghanistan's new Taliban government and blamed the U.S. for the loss. Khan painted Pakistan as a casualty for U.S. cooperation. During a speech a year prior, Khan praised Osama bin Laden as a martyr.
In April 2022, Imran Khan was removed as Pakistan's Prime Minister after a no confidence vote. He blamed it on a U.S. coup attempt. Months after leaving office, Khan led protest rallies across Pakistan. On November 3, 2022, Imran Khan survived an assassination attempt during a protest rally in Wazirabad, Pakistan. Since the attempt, Pakistani courts have been trying to indict him for corruption charges. Imran Khan was arrested in Islamabad on May 9, 2023.
SHEHBAZ SHARIF (2022-PRESENT)
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif giving a speech in 2017.
(CC BY-SA)
Shehbaz Sharif took office as Pakistan's Prime Minister after Imran Khan. Sharif's expressed openness to strengthening ties with the U.S. In Afghanistan, the Taliban government was open to a future beneficial relationship with Pakistan. Shehbaz Sharif received backlash from the Taliban for calling out terrorism in Afghanistan.
PAKISTAN'S ISI AND SUPPORT OF TERRORISM
For decades, Pakistan's ISI had a warm relationship with Islamic Extremism. During the War in Afghanistan, ISI's support for the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and other terrorist groups hindered the U.S. relationship with Pakistan. This section will define ISI and offer a historical analysis of their support for terrorism.
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was founded in January 1948. Outside of the national security realm (India and Kashmir), ISI became prominent in Pakistani politics. It directly impacted elections and coups. In the 1980s, Pakistan underwent a major transformation. General Zia al-Haq Islamized the nation by enforcing Sharia Law. During that same period, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan.
The U.S. relationship with Pakistan grew closer during the Soviet-Afghan War. In order to repel Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the U.S. agreed to support Mujahideen freedom fighters. Pakistan was the main transit point for foreign fighters to Afghanistan. Most U.S. weapons were supplied to ISI, who in turn trained the Mujahideen on the Afghan-Pakistan border. ISI's influence and power increased during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Aside removing the Soviets, ISI wanted a new government in Afghanistan that aligned with Pakistani interests. Their preferred candidate to lead the new Afghan government was Gulbuddin Hekmaytor. ISI also had objectives to train militants to fight in Kashmir.
After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, ISI's mission continued. Despite the political rifts with Pakistan's Prime Minister, they still wanted Hekmaytor in Afghanistan. To make it possible, they had to first overthrow Najibullah. After a U.S. aid ban to Pakistan in 1992, ISI engineered an attempted coup in Afghanistan. It was essential that no form of Afghanistan's government would align with India.
In 1994, the Taliban was founded. ISI's support shifted from Hektamayor to the Taliban. As more support was diverted to the Taliban, their alliance with ISI deepened. By 1996, Afghanistan was under Taliban control. Under the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, al-Qaeda was granted safe haven. ISI's ties did align with Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. Notable conflicts between the U.S. and ISI during the late 1990s stemmed over bin Laden. In August 1998, the U.S. attempted a strike on bin Laden in retaliation for the 1998 Kenyan bombings. Two years later in 2000, ISI continued to have strong relations with the Taliban.
On September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda attacked the United States of America. After 9/11, the U.S. demanded Pakistan's cooperation. That included ISI's rescindment of Taliban support. Even though Pakistan pledged cooperation, ISI still had its Afghan interests at hand (Afghan government aligned with Pakistani interests). One strategy of ISI was double play; on one hand, U.S. demands could be followed. On the other hand, maintain an unofficial relationship with the Taliban. Even though the U.S. understood ISI had a close relationship with the Taliban (pre-9/11), they needed them to capture/kill Osama bin Laden.
From November to December 2001, Osama bin Laden and many al-Qaeda/Taliban leaders fled to Pakistan. At that point in time, the Taliban had been defeated in Afghanistan. The U.S. did not want recognition or any future Taliban government in Afghanistan (tracing back to the War on Terror doctrine). In 2002, the U.S. began shifting priority from Afghanistan to Iraq.
From 2002-2004, the U.S. and ISI cooperated on anti-terror raids inside Pakistan. Notable raids include the arrest of 9/11 Mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Despite ISI's presentation as "compliant" with the U.S., their elements still had loyalties to the Taliban. ISI support also deepened with the Haqqani Network. ISI al-Qaeda ties were traced to an attempted assassination on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraff. By 2004, U.S. anti-terror strategy began with drone strikes against targets in Pakistan.
By 2006, the Taliban launched an offensive in Afghanistan. As attacks increased in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, the U.S. relationship with ISI degraded. ISI's ties to Islamic militants smoothed in 2007. This was an effort to reduce terrorist attacks in Pakistan and stick to its original goal in Afghanistan (government aligned with Paksitani interests). In July 2008, the Haqqani Network attacked the Indian embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan. ISI was found to have supported the Haqqani militants behind the attack. In November 2008, the Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a major terrorist attack in Mumbai, India. Pakistan was accused of having ties, and ISI of direct involvement in planning the attack.
Increased U.S. aid to Pakistan was advantageous for ISI. For increased aid, ISI needed to fulfill U.S. demands. However, doubleplay strategy was still in effect. In 2010, ISI arrested Taliban Mullah Baradar. Through 2010, the U.S. was planning the eventual raid on Osama bin Laden. Intelligence pointed to a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Unsure of the compound's occupants, long-term surveillance continued. To combat al-Qaeda and the Taliban, U.S. drones strikes dramatically increased in Paksitan. With backlash against U.S. strikes in Pakistan, ISI openly opposed the use of drones against terrorists. With a deteriorated relationship with ISI over terrorism, the U.S. pursued the raid on bin Laden. In May 2011, U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in his compound. The mission was top secret and did not include informing Pakistan or passing on any intelligence to ISI.
In Afghanistan, ISI sponsored Haqqani Network militants continued attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces. In September 2011, the U.S. embassy in Kabul was attacked. Later in the month, it was determined that ISI had links the attack. Note that ISI's close relationship with the Haqqani Network was not unnoticed by U.S. command. Continued terrorist activity by the Haqqani Network in Afghanistan strained U.S-Pakistani relations. Pakistan's refusal or failure to stop the Haqqani Network led to multiple U.S. aid suspensions to Pakistan. Over $900 million in U.S. aid to Pakistan was suspended in 2018. ISI's also expanded its ties to ISIS in Afghanistan.
After the 2021 U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan, ISI did not cease its presence. ISI continued its original mission since the 1990s over Afghanistan's government (favorable to Pakistani interests). In order to enact political change, ISI used the Haqqani Network (no attacks). With Afghanistan under Taliban rule for the first time since 2001, its future remains uncertain. However, ISI's history and activity within Afghanistan and Pakistan render questions of repeating the pre-9/11 sphere.
PAKISTANI SUPPORT FOR THE WAR ON TERROR
During the War in Afghanistan, U.S. anti-terror operations extended into Pakistan. Though U.S. troops were not formally deployed to Pakistan, the war directly impacted the country. From the raid on Osama bin Laden to drone strikes, the section below will analyze responses. A historical analysis of Pakistani support or reaction to the War on Terror will be presented.
Angry Pakistanis protest by burning an American flag. Demonstrations across Pakistan frequently featured the burning of the flag to protest U.S. intervention in Afghanistan and drone strikes in Pakistan.
(Khalid Tanveer/AP)
In October 2001, the U.S.-led Coalition invaded Afghanistan. Traditionally, Pakistan had a negative or opposing position of the War on Terror. Understanding Pakistani support or rejection of U.S. anti-terrorism policies are rooted in its politics. Geographical region is also important as well. In Northwest Pakistan the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) are breeding grounds and open safe havens for Islamic militants. Located alongside the border with Afghanistan, Taliban and al-Qaeda militants operate within the region. One specific hotbed for Islamic extremism in the FATA is Southwestern Waziristan. In 2002, Pakistan began deploying troops to combat terrorism in Waziristan.
From 2001-2008, Pervez Musharraf's presidency was defined by the aftermath of 9/11 and the opening stages of action against al-Qaeda/Taliban militants. Musharraf's decision to cooperate with the U.S. days after 9/11 had opposition in Pakistan. A 2002 Gallup poll calculated that more than 50% of Pakistanis negatively viewed the United States. In 2003, nearly 90% of Pakistanis did not support the U.S. invasion of Iraq. That same poll found that 55% of Pakistanis supported action defending Iraq over the U.S. Many Pakistanis viewed their country's security status at 55-57% satisfaction rate. That was between 2004-2005. By 2006, the satisfaction rate dropped to 35%. With the creation of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in 2007, violence increased over the next several years. Polling at that time indicated 74% of Pakistanis opposed the U.S. War on Terror, 38% supported the Taliban, and 43% supported al-Qaeda.
By 2009, U.S. strategy called for increased troop deployments to Afghanistan. As for Pakistan, drone strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban militants skyrocketed. In 2010, the U.S. authorized 121 drone strikes. As reiterated throughout this section, most strikes occur within the FATA. In retaliation for strikes, the Taliban launched revenge attacks against Pakistani troops in locations such as Waziristan. U.S. drone strikes had an overwhelmingly negative opinion (93%) from Pakistanis because of high civilian casualties.
On May 2, 2011, U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan. As Americans and many across the world cheered the death of the terror leader behind 9/11, Pakistanis were outraged. Backlash extended from civilians to Pakistani government officials. A Gallup poll analyzing the 2011 raid calculated that 64% of Pakistanis disapproved. Since the raid was conducted without the consent of Pakistan's government or military, it fueled further disapproval ratings. The same 2011 Gallup Poll found the disapproval rate to be 81% of Pakistanis (once informed the raid was executed by the U.S. military).
U.S. drone strikes steadily decreased in Pakistan after the 2010-2011 peak. Fast forward to 2013, Pakistan's Peshawar High Court ruled that U.S. drone strikes were illegal. In October 2013, Pakistani civilians who were victims of drone strikes testified in the United States before Congress. Drone strikes, despite high civilian casualties did eliminate Taliban leaders and al-Qaeda militants in Pakistan. For instance, a November 2013 drone strike killed Tehreek-e-Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud. In May 2016, a drone strike killed Taliban leader Mullah Mansoor.
Protests in Pakistan where the U.S. flag was burned was not uncommon. Amongst Pakistani Prime Ministers like Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, drone strikes were unpopular. After Sharif, Imran Khan became prime minster in 2018. The significance behind Khan was his open anti-U.S. statements. Before running for office, he led a protest against drone strikes in 2012. He also suggested shooting down U.S. drones. Khan belonged to his own political party, Tehreek-e-Insaf. Through Imran Khan's term as Prime Minister, he defended Pakistan's role in the War on Terror by brushing off terror support accusations. When the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021, Khan was still Pakistan's Prime Minister. He praised the Taliban and condemned the 20-year U.S. presence in Afghansitan. According to a 2021 poll, 55% of Pakistanis supported the new Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
POLITICAL AND SOCIETAL CHALLENGES TO COMBAT TERRORISM
U.S. policy pressured Pakistan to crack down on terror in the days after 9/11. Despite the promises of Pakistani leaders, the U.S. and Pakistani relationship muddled for nearly 20 years. The following section will analyze Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the significance amongst Pakistani politics and the War on Terror. Culturally, Islamic fundamentalism presents a challenge to the U.S. and Pakistani leaders to effectively eliminate the spread of Islamic militancy in Pakistan.
Drone strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban militants began in 2004 within the FATA. When the Pakistani military began an offensive in Waziristan (province within FATA), many tribals opposed. Unlike the rest of Pakistan, the FATA's governance is different. Absent from traditional Pakistani politics, FATA governs through Pashtunwali; and tribe leadership via jirgas. Culturally, the FATA is more aligned with Afghanistan. For instance, Pakistan's main language is Urdu. In the FATA, languages such as Pashto (according to the 2017 Pakistan Census) is more common.
Politically, the FATA is strong for Pakistan's religious parties. In the 2002 election, hardline religious political parties formed the United Action Forum. Parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami ran on positions heavily critical of America. They did not support the U.S. War in Afghanistan or any action by the U.S. military to combat terrorism. The United Action Forum ended up gaining 50 seats in the Pakistani National Assembly (Parliament). Pakistan's government attempted to bridge the cultural and political gap with the FATA. They attempted multiple peace deals in the FATA (such as peace agreements with the Taliban). A notable example was the 2006 Waziristan Accord. Peace deals and attempts were not permanent and often shattered. Pakistan launched a 2018 effort to politically incorporate the FATA.
The intermingling between Islamic fundamentalism and societal dynamics exist beyond political parties. Madrassas (religious schools) render controversy. Teachings supporting Islamic radicalization and embrace of jihad are red flags for terror. After 9/11 and through the War on Terror, the U.S. raised concerns over madrassas and direct ties to terrorism. Terrorist groups such as the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, etc. recruited jihadists from madrassas. In 2002, Pervez Musharraf attempted to use government action to monitor madrassas. Twelve years later in 2015, Nawaz Sharif also attempted a crackdown on madrassas.
Another topic to examine is the incorporation of Islamic laws in the legal system. In Pakistan, blasphemy laws are enforced to punish those who insult or criticize Islam. Violators could be sentenced to prison or death (depending on the offense) by Pakistani courts. Blasphemy laws have many cases of extrajudicial punishments for accused persons. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime enforced Sharia Law to punish nonbelievers (Kaffir). According to a 2013 Pew Research Report, 84% of Pakistani Muslims supported Sharia Law. The same report found that 13% of Pakistanis supported (80% opposed) suicide bombings in the name of Islam. Even though most Pakistanis do not support extreme measures, societal adaptation of Islamic fundamentalism present a major challenge to combat terrorism.
PREDICTING PAKISTAN'S FUTURE
Since the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan has been key in the U.S. effort to defeat the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and other terrorist groups. Despite promises to comply with U.S. demands, Pakistan has been working directly against the national security interests of the United States. With U.S. forces out of Afghanistan, could Pakistan officially declare support for the new Taliban regime?
American flag burned during a Pakistani protest.