top of page

LESSONS FROM IRAQ

In December 2011, U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq after an 8-year war. Shortly after the withdrawal, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) rose and conquered territory. Nearly 10 years later, U.S. forces withdrew from Afghanistan. This section will analyze the effects of the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq (alongside a war analysis), and apply it to the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal. 

IRAQ WAR (2003-2011): A BRIEF ANALYSIS
iraq map 1_edited.jpg
US soldiers Iraq 1_edited.jpg

U.S. Soldiers during a mission in Iraq, April 2007.

 

(Staff Sgt. Stacey L. Pearsall, U.S. Air Force)

In early 2002, the U.S. began to shift national security concerns to Iraq. In Afghanistan, Taliban fighters were defeated: many were captured, killed, or fled to Pakistan. As for Iraq, the U.S. was concerned about links to terrorism. One potential worst-case scenario was Iraq providing nuclear weapons to al-Qaeda. After 9/11, updated U.S. policy allowed offensive approaches to terrorism/national security threats. One particular part of the policy involved pre-emptive strikes. Iraq was the first country the U.S. utilized pre-emptive military action against (post 9/11). In October 2002, Congress passed the AUMF (Authroization for Use of Military Force) against Iraq. On March 17, 2003, Iraq was given a 48-hour ultimatum to comply with the U.S. 

On March 19, 2003, the U.S. led Coalition initiated Operation Iraqi Freedom. The mission was to take down Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein over charges of illegal possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). The operation began with strikes against Iraqi military targets and those of strategic importance. Days later, ground troops and armored divisions began the assault. The campaign was swift and many of Saddam Hussein's forces surrendered to U.S. and Coalition troops. In April 2003, Baghdad was secured, and Saddam's statue was torn down. By May, it seemed as if the war was over, and victory had been established. However, the contrary occurred. 

The U.S. initiated a policy of de-Baathification. Individuals in the Iraqi Army, Government, or any sector under Sadaam's Baath Party were terminated from employment. Without a functioning government in Iraq, it soon resulted in mass instability. Looting became common. Terrorists such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and soon to be al-Qaeda in Iraq took advantage. Targeted bombings against the Red Cross and Jordanian embassy in Summer 2003 sparked the beginning of long-term insurgency. By September, the situation was worsening. Iraq was becoming even more unstable. In 2004, insurgents flooded Iraq. They occupied sectors, and provinces (i.e., Sadr City, Triangle of Death, Sunni Triangle, Anbar Province, etc.). It also saw the infamous leak of abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. There was also the burning/hanging of U.S. contractors, and the Battles of Fallujah (Operation Vigilant Resolve: April 2004, and Operation Phantom Fury: November 2004). 

From 2005-2006, strategy in Iraq changed. To counter the insurgency and heavy sectarian violence, the U.S. adopted a clear, hold, build strategy. With some success brewed, the Pentagon planned a larger strategy for Iraq. One major 2006 battle to note is Ramadi. In early 2007, the Surge began with 20,000 more U.S. troops deployed to Iraq. With the Sunni Awakening, the Surge reduced the insurgency and sectarian violence levels. From 2008 onward, the concentration shifted to the drawdown of U.S. troops. 

BAGHDAD POST-SADDAM: U.S. EFFORTS FOR A FREE IRAQ

After Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003, the U.S. attempted to transform Iraq into a democracy. Another mission was getting Iraq to reduce sectarian violence and terrorism. U.S. leaders stressed that troops would withdraw once the mission was complete. However, the U.S. kept missing withdrawal windows due to Iraq's instability. The following section will examine U.S. goals for Iraq's political system and training its new army. 

DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ (2003-2005)

In April 2003, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) took effect in Iraq. They were to be a temporary government to stabilize the country (short-term). It was under the CPA that de-Baathification was ordered. Under that policy, there were two components: political and military. The first directive under de-Baathification sought termination of those politically involved in Saddam Hussein's government. However, the directive eventually led to the firing of all involved in the Baath party across every Iraqi institution. Note that under Saddam Hussein, being a member of the Baath party was required for public employment.  

The CPA's goal for Iraq (aside stability) was to implement blueprints for Iraq's transformation. Initial proposals involved a long-term process to turn Iraq into a democracy. However, fast solutions were needed due to growing chaos in the country. By September 2003, the Coalition Provisional Authority planned to have an interim government. In November 2003, the CPA agreed on a formal Iraqi Interim Government to take effect: June 30, 2004. To prepare for that date, the CPA spent the next several months rewriting a new constitution for Iraq. Under the Transitional Administrative Law, the future government of Iraq would have a democratic system. The new constitution also called for the unification of Iraq. Meaning that there would not be sectors absent or governing outside of the new Iraqi constitution guidelines. For example, Pakistan's FATA governs outside of Islamabad's main government system. Under the new Iraqi consitution, that would not be allowed. One final point that the Transitional Administrative Law addressed was reducing the influence of Islamic law within the new government system. 

Iraq held its first series of democratic elections on January 30, 2005. U.S. and Iraqi forces provided a heavy security presence around polls (due to threats from insurgents). Once the election was over, most Iraqi Parliamentary seats went to the United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite political group). It can be inferred that the January elections was the beginning of formal Shiite political control in Iraq. Disaffected by the results of the elections, Sunnis felt excluded from Iraq's political process.

 

In October 2005, the new Iraqi Constitution was ratified. Two months later, Iraq held its second series of elections.  Despite stronger Sunni turnout, United Iraqi Alliance still had the majority in Parliament. From 2006, Iraq's government offered little solutions (even escalated problems) as yearslong sectarian violence skyrocketed. Tensions eventually calmed with the Sunni Awakening and 2007 Surge. 

THE NEW IRAQI ARMY (2003-2007)

In May 2003, the Coalition Provisional Authority's (CPA) second de-Baathification directive abolished the Iraqi Army. This escalated tensions for U.S. forces in Iraq (with effects lasting long past the future 2011 withdrawal). Unsatisfied over periods without pay, ex-soldiers protested; some of which were deadly. Many also joined the growing insurgency. By June 2003, the U.S. planned on revamping a new Iraqi Army. In August 2003, the CPA's directive number 22 established the guidelines for a new Iraqi Army. The CPA also issued guidelines to train the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps and Iraqi Police. The CPA's role began to recede in Iraq by Spring 2004. In May 2004, Iraqi Army training was delegated to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). As a subcategory to the command structure, the Coalition Military Assistance Training Team (CMATT) trained the Iraqi Army.

 

In June 2004, the Multinational Forces Iraq (MNF-I) was launched. Under the MNF-I, U.S. and Coalition troops continued training the Iraqi police and military. MNF-I was designed to organize command structure and meet objectives (counterinsurgency, security, rebuilding). CMATT was morphed under the Multinational Security Transition Command. Throughout 2004, MNF-I countries such as Spain and New Zealand withdrew troops from Iraq. Many trained Iraqis directly assisted U.S. forces. Even before MNF-I's activation, efforts to train Iraqis had significant setbacks. The growing insurgency caused U.S. leaders to request faster processes. To close 2004, MNF-I's successful major offensive was retaking Fallujah. In November 2004, U.S. Marines spearheaded an operation to clear Fallujah's heavy insurgent stronghold. 

By 2005, the U.S. allotted $5.7 billion toward training Iraqi forces. Weapons sales totaled $132 million. U.S. training efforts wanted Iraqi forces to quell insurgencies. This meant that combat roles were intended to have majority Iraqis instead of U.S. troops. Despite that objective, the situation was the opposite. 2005 was the year the U.S. implemented "clear, hold, build". Iraqi forces and police units were not at effective combat readiness levels. There were even cases of desertion, compromisation, and disobedience. One notable incident was the first battle of Fallujah in April 2004, where Iraqi forces refused to fight alongside U.S. forces. By November 2005, U.S. strategy for securing Iraq still focused on increased training for Iraqi forces (military and police). 

Sectarian violence in Iraq hit record levels in 2006. In February, the al-Askari Mosque (one of Iraq's holiest Shiite sites) was bombed. Shiite militias and insurgents then retaliated against Sunnis for the attack. Violence throughout Iraq became widespread. Deadly attacks killed scores of U.S. troops. Between the Sunnis and Shiites, three groups were responsible for instigating the deadliest attacks. Amongst Sunnis, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) under Abu Musab al-Zarqawi launched attacks to escalate sectarian violence and kill U.S. troops. Zarqawi's insurgency in Iraq began in Summer 2003. The Shiite militias such as the Mahdi Army led by Muqtada al-Sadr and Badr Brigade primarily targeted Sunnis. They also wanted to extend political control over Iraq. U.S. weapons shipments more than quadrupled when compared to 2005. In 2006, the U.S. sold $2.3 billion in weapons to Iraq. The Multinational Forces- Iraq (MNF-I)'s goals for the Iraqi Army were slipping. They planned for 10 combat ready divisions. Serious challenges concerning allegiance to militias was present in both the Iraqi Army and Police. There were many cases of U.S. troops frustrated with Iraqis not adhering to mission directives. 

Iraq soon underwent a major transformation in Summer 2006. First, a U.S. airstrike eliminated AQI leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in June. Second, counterinsurgency began to shift in favor of MNF-I forces. Western Iraq's Anbar Province (which includes the Sunni Triangle) began to cooperate with U.S. forces. In Ramadi for example, U.S. counterinsurgency mirrored the official "clear, hold, build" strategy. After denying insurgents any passage into the city, U.S. and Iraqi forces set up combat outposts. By engaging with sheikhs, the U.S. established working relationships. This soon resulted in many joining Iraqi forces. Previously, AQI operated freely and had support from the locals. That was no longer the case. The Sunnis hunted down and killed AQI fighters. With substantial progress from the Sunni Awakening, the U.S. also rebuilt key infrastructure. Strategy-wise, U.S. military leaders found it advantageous as a method to convince the Sunnis their lives were improving. Close relationships with Sheikhs (most influential spiritual and community leaders) and imams were key to defeating Al-Qaeda in Iraq. To build trust, the U.S. also paid millions of dollars to sheikhs and tribal leaders. 

In January 2007, the Surge began with 20,000 U.S. troops deployed to Iraq. To combat insurgents, U.S. and Iraqi patrols increased. The presence of forces was more common amongst the Iraqi populace. In February 2007, the U.S. launched Operation Fardh al-Qannon to secure Baghdad. Targets were AQI, Sunni, and Shiite insurgents. Many of the neighborhoods in Baghdad had Sunnis and Shiites living amongst one another. Discrepancies such as that escalated sectarian violence in Baghdad. Once U.S. and Iraqi forces cleared insurgents and segregated Sunnis and Shiites, violence began to decrease. In August 2007, Mahdi Army leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced a ceasefire. For the past several years, his militia directly opposed MNF-I forces. Despite the succeses of the Surge, 2007 was one of the deadliest years for U.S. troops in Iraq.  The Triangle of Death (south of Baghdad) emulated the challenges and intensity of counterinsurgency in an openly hostile enviornment. 

WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ AND THE RISE OF ISIS

After the Surge, U.S. combat priorities began to shift back to Afghanistan. In December 2011, U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq. After the U.S. exit, ISIS established their caliphate nearly three years later. U.S. forces were then again re-deployed to Iraq. The following section will analyze the situation in Iraq from 2008 to present. Included will be the new U.S. mission to combat ISIS and any regional challenges to the new campaign. 

ISIS rise in iraq 1_edited.jpg

Flag of the Islamic State flown by an ISIS fighter. This image has constantly been circulated in ISIS propaganda videos.  

isis control map 1_edited.jpg
ISIS rise 2_edited.jpg

ISIS fighters parading through Raqqa, Syria in 2014. 

 

(Associated Press)

operation inherent resolve 1_edited.jpg

U.S. Troops in Syria during Operation Inherent Resolve. 

In November 2008, the United States and Iraq signed the Status of Forces Agreement. Under the consensus, U.S. troops were to completely withdraw from Iraq no later than December 31, 2011. During the early months of 2011, the Arab Spring occurred throughout the Middle East. Countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Libya, etc. had uprisings by citizens against their leaders (eventually leading to regime change in many countries). On December 17, 2011, all U.S. troops were out of Iraq. From 2003-2011, over 4,000 U.S. troops were killed during the Iraq War. 

Soon after the U.S. withdrawal, trouble spilled for Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Malaki (Shiite) launched a persecution campaign against the Sunni population. ISIS (whose roots can be traced to the Iraq War with al-Qaeda in Iraq) took advantage. They were able to spread amongst the Sunnis. In Syria, ISIS spread amongst rebel forces battling the Assad Regime. By summer 2014, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi officially declared ISIS a caliphate

ISIS gained notoriety through its execution methods (i.e., beheadings, drowning, crucifixion, shootings, etc.). Sexual slavery, genocide of the Yazidis, and destruction of historical sites were some of the cruelties inflicted by ISIS. Americans were also executed as well

With control of large portions of Iraq and Syria, ISIS launched attacks abroad. The unrest in the Middle East led to a mass influx of refugees into Europe from 2015-16. During those years, ISIS launched major attacks worldwide. Methods were (not limited to) mass shootings, suicide bombings, vehicle borne attacks, and lone wolf attacks. Terrorism also hit the United States with the 2015 San Bernadino attack, 2016 Pulse Nightclub attack, and 2017 New York City truck attack.  

To counter ISIS, the U.S. formed a coalition named the Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF) to launch Operation Inherent Resolve in August 2014. The beginning of the combat phase began with coordinated airstrikes against ISIS fighters/targets. U.S. troops were then deployed to Syria and back to Iraq. By January 2015, the U.S. engaged once again in retraining the Iraqi Army. When ISIS advanced the year before, the Iraqi Army that the U.S. spent years training, failed to hold the country. Many deserted from the fight. 

Alongside allying with Iraqi soldiers, the U.S. continues assisting Kurdish/Peshmerga fighters in anti-ISIS operations. In October 2016, the U.S., CJTF, Iraqi, and Peshmerga fighters launched the operation to retake Mosul. In July 2017, Mosul was free from ISIS control. In Syria, Raqqa was liberated from ISIS occupation in October 2017. By November 2017, the ISIS caliphate was territorially defeated in Iraq. Note that ISIS still remained in small numbers throughout Iraq. 

Anti-ISIS operations continued in Syria as CJTF, and Kurdish forces retook territory. In December 2018, U.S. troops withdrew from Northern Syria. Geopolitically, Turkey and the Kurdish have longstanding grievances (primarily due to the Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK). Northern Syria is an ideal target for a future Turkish invasion

In March 2019, after the last battle in Syria, the ISIS Caliphate was territorially defeated. In October 2019, the U.S. launched Operation Kayla Mueller against ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Aside ISIS, the U.S. and CTJF face threats from the Islamic Republic of Iran. In December 2019, pro-Iranian protestors stormed the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. This was part of an ongoing proxy war between Iranian backed militants and U.S. forces. Note that Iran's Quds Force supported insurgents against the U.S. during the Iraq War. In January 2020, the U.S. eliminated their commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike. Days later, Iran retaliated with missiles near U.S. bases. As tensions escalated with the U.S., the proxy war continued. Iran continues to launch proxy attacks against U.S. forces and fire missiles near U.S. bases in Iraq. 

 

As of 2022, the U.S. and CJTF are continuing Inherent Resolve. Currently, 2,500 U.S. troops remained deployed in Iraq, and appx. less than 1,000 in Syria

AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE U.S. WITHDRAWAL: WHAT THE LESSONS FROM IRAQ COULD ENTAIL

After analyzing the Iraq War and rise of ISIS, there is no certainty of the fate in Afghanistan. Learning from Iraq, there is a possibility of future U.S. troop deployments to Afghanistan. After the withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, U.S. troops redeployed three years later. It was due to ISIS' spread and threat to Western nations (including the United States). ISIS eventually attacked, and the U.S. presence lengthened. 

In Afghanistan (post 2021 U.S. withdrawal), the Taliban is again the governing institution. The U.S. is concerned about a strengthened renewed relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The U.S. is also concerned about future attacks from ISIS-K (responsible for the Kabul Airport Attack). As the Taliban and ISIS-K continue their fight against one another, it does not guarantee a lesser terror threat. 

 

Taking notes from Iraq, the persecution amongst Sunnis led to the eventual spread of ISIS. In Afghanistan, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS-K are terrorist groups rampant throughout the country. If ISIS-K were to be defeated, the concern will be solely on al-Qaeda and a replicated pre-9/11 Afghanistan. With China also in the picture, one can question of Afghanistan becoming a proxy war with Beijing and the United States. One could slightly infer a proxy between the United States and Islamic Republic of Iran over Iraq. 

Both Iraq (post 2011 withdrawal) and Afghanistan (after 9/11) were grounds for U.S. involvement due to terror threats. If the terror threat becomes dire (i.e., al-Qaeda, Taliban, or ISIS-K), or an attack commences, it will likely result in U.S. troops being redeployed to Afghanistan.  

Both Iraq and Afghanistan have two common themes. If U.S. troops are deployed, it's either a continued long-term combat phase (fight forever), or temporary withdrawal for new re-deployment (leave to come back to worse situation). This was evident in Iraq after the U.S. withdrawal. The combat phase ended, and U.S. troops left. They soon returned to fight in similar locations 10 years earlier during the Iraq War. Afghanistan would undoubtedly be the same if U.S. troops are redeployed. Afghanistan could mean a worse insurgency, or an insurgency fueled by a long-term proxy war with China. 

SIMILARTIES WITH AFGHANISTAN
Democratic Election Year
U.S. and Coalition Forces (Name)
Peak U.S. Troop Deployment (Year)
Main Enemy forces (opposed to U.S. led Coalition)
Hostile Countries (directly supported enemy forces) 
Deadliest Combat Zones
Peak U.S. spending (Year/Amount)
Total Spending on Training Foreign Forces
Withdrawal Date (Year)
IRAQ
(2003-2011)

2005

Multinational Forces- Iraq (MNF-I)

AFGHANISTAN
(2001-2021)

2004

International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF)

2007

2011

Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Mahdi Army, Badr Brigade, Quds Force, Sunni/Shiite Insurgents

Taliban, al-Qaeda, Haqqani Network, ISIS-K

Iran

Pakistan

Triangle of Death

Helmand Province

$144,000,000,000 (2008)

$119,000,000,000 (2011)

2011

2021

TRACKING BAGHDAD'S FUTURE

In 2003, U.S. and Coalition forces invaded Iraq. Throughout the war, the insurgency and heavy sectarian violence transformed the course of the war. U.S. troops soon redeployed in 2014 to combat ISIS. With similarities between the Iraq and Afghanistan war campaigns, what lessons could the current status in Iraq offer for a possible re-deployment of U.S. forces to Afghanistan? 

baghdad protests1_edited.jpg

Photo is licensed under CC BY-SA-NC

Iraqi citizen holding flag during 2019 protest.

bottom of page