2021 WITHDRAWAL AND THE THREAT OF TERRORISM
As indicated in the Situation Analysis Page, there is concern about future terrorist attacks following the 2021 U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban had a strong relationship before 9/11. 20 Years later, could U.S. Counterterrorism see the same signs developing again?
LIST OF POTENTIAL THREATS OF TERRORISM
Below are documented incidents of the terror threat following the 2021 U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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AL-QAEDA COULD REBUILD IN 1-2 YEARS
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RELEASING UNVETTED REFUGEES IS A TERROR THREAT TO AMERICA
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ISIS-K COULD ATTACK THE U.S.
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TALIBAN THREATENED WASHINGTON D.C. WITH 2,000 SUICIDE BOMBERS
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20TH 9/11 HIJACKER RELEASED FROM GUANTANAMO BAY
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U.S. DRONE STRIKE KILLED AL-QAEDA LEADER AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI
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TERROR THREAT AT U.S.- MEXICO BORDER
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AL-QAEDA SERVING IN TALIBAN GOVERNMENT
MAJOR TERRORIST GROUPS OPERATING IN AFGHANISTAN
Before 9/11, Afghanistan was a major haven for terrorist groups. Since 2001, the U.S. led Coalition battled a continuous insurgency. Most of these groups have been severely destroyed in successful U.S. military strikes and operations. Following the 2021 Withdrawal from Afghanistan, concern rises over possible resurgences.
TALIBAN
In 1989, the last Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan. In 1992, Afghanistan's President Mohammed Najibullah was overthrown. In 1994, the Taliban was formed and led by Mullah Mohammed Omar. By 1996, Afghanistan fell under Taliban control. The Taliban government notably imposed Sharia Law. Throughout the 1990s, al-Qaeda used Afghanistan as a training ground for overseas terrorist attacks.
After 9/11, the U.S. issued the Taliban an ultimatum to extradite Osama bin Laden and renounce al-Qaeda. After the Taliban refused, the U.S.-led Coalition invaded Afghanistan in October 2001. By year's end, the Taliban was overthrown.
The Taliban soon became an insurgent group after losing governing power. They continued the terror campaign against U.S. and Coalition troops until the 2020 U.S-Taliban Peace Deal.
In 2021, they retook control of Afghanistan. Going forward, concerns continue about the Taliban and sponsorship of terror (considering their continued relationship with al-Qaeda).
AL-QAEDA
Al-Qaeda was formed in 1988. Led by Osama bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam briefly played a role into its formation. In 1990, bin Laden wanted to fight against Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The Saudi government rejected his offer. Instead, U.S. troops were to fight against Saddam Hussein the Gulf War. bin Laden then directed his anger toward the U.S. In 1993, the World Trade Center was bombed in a terrorist attack orchestrated by Ramzi Yousef.
Osama bin Laden was determined to launch terrorist attacks against the United States. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM) proposed the eventual idea of 9/11. In 1995, he helped devised the Bojinka Plot. KSM proposed the idea of crashing hijacked airliners into buildings and received bin Laden's approval. Throughout the 1990s, al-Qaeda trained in Afghanistan. bin Laden expanded al-Qaeda to Africa, Pakistan, and Yemen.
Bin Laden openly declared a fatwa against the United States in 1998. In August of that same year, al-Qaeda bombed the U.S. embassy in Kenya. In 2000, they launched a suicide attack against the USS Cole. On September 11, 2001, they attacked the United States of America. 19 hijackers flew four commercial airliners into the World Trade Center and Pentagon. The final plane was destined for the Capitol or White House. Instead, it crashed in Shanksville, Pennsylvania after the passengers fought back against the hijackers. Nearly 3000 innocent people were killed on 9/11.
In October 2001, the U.S. launched Operation Enduring freedom to destroy al-Qaeda and capture or kill Osama bin Laden. The Taliban (who refused to cooperate with U.S. demands) were also designated as enemy combatants.
In May 2011, Osama bin Laden was killed when U.S. Navy SEALs raided his compound in Pakistan. Ayman al-Zawahiri became the new leader of al-Qaeda. Zawahiri was killed in a U.S. drone strike in August 2022. With al-Qaeda in search of a new leader, questions arise with a potential resurgence under Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
ISIS-K
In June 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) became a caliphate. That same year, the U.S. led a Coalition in Operation Inherent Resolve (war against ISIS). From 2015, ISIS spread across the world- including Afghanistan.
ISIS-K is an extended branch of the original ISIS terrorist group. ISIS-K is primarily based in Afghanistan and launches attacks within that region.
ISIS-K and the Taliban launch (and continue to) attack one another. The U.S. did carry out anti-ISIS operations during the closing years of the War in Afghanistan. On August 26, 2021, ISIS-K launched a suicide bombing attack against U.S. forces at Hamid Karzai International Airport (Kabul, Afghanistan). 13 U.S. troops were killed. Nearly one week later, the U.S. military completely withdrew from Afghanistan. The ISIS-K leader remains at large, and U.S. national security remains concerned about the potential threat from ISIS-K. Reports in June 2023 have indicated that the ISIS-K leader was dead, but U.S. confirmation still awaits.
ISIS-K's operations continued outside Afghanistan since the withdrawal. Despite the insurgency war with the Taliban inside Afghanistan, its international threat remains uninterrupted. In March 2024, ISIS-K was responsible for a terrorist attack in Moscow. Gunmen stormed a music theatre and opened fire, killing over 100 innocent people.
U.S. national security remains concerned about the threat from ISIS-K to America. Highlighting the open border, officials are warning of terrorists infiltrating and plotting attacks against the United States of America.
HAQQANI NETWORK
The Haqqani Network was formed in 1973 by Jalaluddin Haqqani. During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Haqqani Network was part of the Mujahideen resistance fighters. Once the Taliban gained control of Afghanistan in 1996, they formed an alliance with the Haqqani Network. Jalaluddin Haqqani was also given a position within the Taliban government.
In October 2001, the U.S. led Coalition invaded Afghanistan. The Haqqani Network allied with the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The terrorist group is Pakistani based. Throughout the war in Afghanistan, the Haqqani Network was responsible for deadly attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) provided aid and support to the Haqqani Network. The U.S. officially classified the Haqqani Network as a terrorist group in 2012. Drone strikes were the primary method to eliminate the Haqqani Network from the battlefield. Following the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, reports indicated the Haqqani Network's role in protecting al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri prior to the 2022 drone strike. With U.S. forces out of Afghanistan, questions loom of the Haqqani Network's relationship and presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.